The Italian M&A Market in 2026
More than €60 billion in announced transactions: 2026 will be decided in the fourth quarter
In the first half of 2026, approximately 637 M&A deals, or “transactions”, were completed for an aggregate value of approximately €22 billion, compared with €30 billion in the first half of 2025.
In a year marked by the conflict between the United States and Iran, the energy shock and the return of interest-rate hikes, Italian dealmaking slowed in value but not in volume: according to BCG, more than 900 transactions involving an Italian buyer or target were recorded in the first seven months, the highest figure in the past decade.
Compared with the first half of 2025, the number of transactions declined by approximately 14%, while aggregate deal value fell by approximately 27%. Average deal value also decreased (approximately €35 million versus approximately €40 million in the first half of 2025, representing a decline of around 15%).
The international picture is considerably more dynamic. According to Mergermarket, global M&A reached $4.44 trillion in the first nine months of 2026 (+27%), the second-highest figure on record after 2021, driven by mega-deals and technology; Europe recorded the strongest growth (+54% according to LSEG).
According to KPMG’s report on the first half of 2026, the decline in domestic deal value reflects the comparison with 2025, which benefited from the completion of major banking transactions, while cross-border activity increased in both directions.
|
Deal type (1H26) |
Deal value (€bn) |
No. of transactions |
% of deal value |
% of transactions |
|
Italy/Italy |
6.8 |
342 |
31% |
54% |
|
Italy/International |
7.2 |
100 |
32% |
16% |
|
International/Italy |
8.2 |
195 |
37% |
31% |
|
Total |
22.2 |
637 |
100% |
100% |
Italian companies are increasingly using cross-border M&A to achieve greater scale: Chiesi’s acquisition of KalVista, Angelini Pharma’s acquisition of Catalyst Pharmaceuticals and Amplifon’s acquisition of GN Store Nord’s Hearing business are examples of Italian market leaders expanding abroad through acquisitions.
Banking consolidation: Intesa Sanpaolo–MPS is the transaction of the year
The leading transaction of 2026 is Intesa Sanpaolo’s voluntary public tender and exchange offer for Monte dei Paschi di Siena, valued at approximately €30.6 billion when announced. On 3 October, Intesa increased the cash component from €1.00 to €1.25 per share, in addition to 1.6 newly issued Intesa shares, and on 4 October Delfin (which holds 17.6% of MPS) committed to tender its shares.
MPS responded with two public exchange offers for Banco BPM and Banca Generali, which will be put to a vote at the shareholders’ meeting on 29 October: if approved, Intesa’s offer would lapse. Outside Italy, UniCredit increased its stake in Commerzbank to 47.59% following completion of its public exchange offer, while BPER completed its merger with Popolare di Sondrio.
Key transactions in the pipeline
Announced but not yet completed transactions exceed €60 billion. These include: completion of Poste Italiane’s voluntary public tender and exchange offer for TIM (approximately €10.8 billion), following which Poste increased its stake to 85.8%; the public tender offer by CVC and GBL for Recordati, aimed at taking the company private (approximately €10.7 billion for 100%), open until 15 October; and the Saipem–Subsea7 merger (approximately €4.6 billion), whose planned closing by December is at risk due to the EU antitrust review. KPMG expects approximately 1,500 transactions by year-end, with an aggregate value broadly in line with the approximately €70 billion recorded in 2025.
Private equity: investment remains stable, while fundraising declines sharply
According to AIFI and PwC, private equity and venture capital firms invested €5.1 billion in Italy in the first half of 2026 (-2%), of which 65% was deployed in buyouts and 72% came from international investors. Fundraising, by contrast, fell by 60% to €674 million: for the domestic mid-market, the pool of available capital is shrinking, and strategic buyers are once again often the most realistic counterparties.
Interest rates, spreads and the impact on valuations
The ECB raised interest rates twice in 2026, bringing the deposit facility rate to 2.50%, while inflation increased in September to 3.8% in the euro area and 4.1% in Italy. As of 5 October, the ten-year BTP yielded 4.59%, with the spread over the German Bund at approximately 114 basis points, after reaching 131 basis points on 2 October.
The impact on M&A transactions is threefold: a higher WACC compresses valuations, more expensive debt reduces leverage in LBO transactions, and shares are once again becoming the preferred acquisition “currency”, as demonstrated by the banking exchange offers. The key upcoming events to monitor are the budget law (by 20 October), the MPS vote and the ECB meeting on 29 October.
Corporate Finance: key concepts and definitions
Set out below are several terms featured in this October 2026 newsletter that are frequently used by advisers and other parties involved in Corporate Finance transactions, namely “voluntary public tender and exchange offer”, “passivity rule”, “squeeze-out” and “earn-out”.
Voluntary public tender and exchange offer: an offer whereby the bidder proposes that the shareholders of the target company receive consideration consisting partly of newly issued shares of the bidder and partly of cash. This is the structure used by Intesa Sanpaolo for MPS and by Poste Italiane for TIM.
Passivity rule: the rule under which a company subject to a public offer may not, without shareholders’ approval, undertake any acts or transactions that could frustrate the achievement of the offer’s objectives.
Squeeze-out: the right of a bidder that, upon completion of a public offer, has exceeded the ownership threshold established by law and by the terms of the offer to acquire the remaining shares and proceed with the company’s delisting. In the case of Poste’s voluntary public tender and exchange offer for TIM, the relevant threshold was 90%, which was not reached.
Earn-out: the portion of the purchase price that is deferred and contingent upon the acquired company achieving future targets; it is often used to bridge the valuation gap between the seller and the buyer.
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